One day, my friend Christoph Görn told me something about risk estimation. I think he learned it at IBM or so. It is a keep it simple stupid technique for tech projects and you get a quick result. I used it in my recent years as a technical program manager to judge my projects and it never failed.
tl;dr: There are three simple criteria to assess the risk of a project in a quick & easy way.
- Does it involve technology which is new to you?
- Does the project involve a partner/supplier/team you have no experience with?
- Does the project has a volume which is relatively high for you?